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Today’s borrowing figures compound the woes for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she seeks to plug gaps in the public finances and find extra to rebuild her headroom for future shocks, says Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot:
Carter points out that borrowing so far this financial year is £9bn higher than a year before, which he says highlights the extent to which the government has increased borrowing since coming to power last year.
“Markets and investors are craving some sort of fiscal responsibility from the UK government, but with next week expected to bring yet more tax rises and potential unintended consequences, one does begin to question how long this current approach can last. Without a shift in the fiscal rules again, the UK economy is bound between tax rises, spending cuts or a combination of the two. So far this government has preferred to use the lever of tax rises and found its backbenchers have jammed the spending cuts one. Economic growth is subsequently difficult to achieve and shows no sign of taking off again any time soon.
“Gilt yields have been climbing higher once again in recent weeks, and the UK still has a risk premium attached to it compared to peers. Ultimately, today’s borrowing figures suggest Reeves is running out of room, and potentially time, to kick start the economy and get it growing once again. While rate cuts will help, inflation remains sticky and as such the Bank of England may not act as aggressively as the government would like. The ball is in Reeves’ court, but her next move will prove crucial next week.”
“Borrowing this October was down on the same month last year, although it was still the third-highest October figure on record in cash terms.
“While spending on public services and benefits were both up on October last year, this was more than offset by increased receipts from taxes and National Insurance contributions.”
